A technical summary of commodity production forecasts at Descartes Labs.
Description
The Market Insights production forecasts use geospatial weather features to predict the end-of-season production figures.
Weather Features
The various features used as inputs into prediction models are as follows:
- Evapotranspiration
- Vapor pressure deficit
- Solar radiation
- Accumulated precipitation anomalies
- Frost index
- Primary modes of tropical variability:
- Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Forecast Components
Each forecast has two components. Note that the end-of-season is fixed, so the forecast timeframe shortens as the calendar year progresses.
- 0-30 days uses the Global Ensemble Forecast System forecast model 00z run
- 30+ days uses a proprietary seasonal forecast model that forecasts through the end of the season
Miscellaneous Details on the Forecast Models
- All models are trained on production values obtained from Conab for Brazil and the USDA in the US from 2008 to the present.
- Each model is trained every 5th day of the growing season.
- For example, Coffee production in Brazil is from August through July.
- Back testing has been performed over the past 10 years using a leave-one-out approach, where the model is trained on all years except one.